FA Cup Quarter-Final Predictions: Paul Merson Breaks Down Man City vs. Liverpool and Other Key Fixtures

 

The magic of the FA Cup is reaching a fever pitch as we head into the quarter-final weekend of the 2025/26 season. With heavyweight clashes and David-vs-Goliath narratives on the horizon, football fans across the globe are bracing for a weekend of high-stakes drama. Adding to the excitement, Arsenal legend and seasoned pundit Paul Merson has shared his expert predictions for the upcoming ties, including a blockbuster showdown between Manchester City and Liverpool.

​As the road to Wembley narrows, Merson's insights offer a glimpse into the tactical battles and potential upsets that could define this round. Here is a comprehensive breakdown of Merson's FA Cup quarter-final forecasts and what to expect from the weekend’s biggest matches.

​Manchester City vs. Liverpool: A Clash of Titans at the Etihad

​The standout fixture of the quarter-finals is undoubtedly the meeting between Manchester City and Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday afternoon. These two sides have defined English football for much of the last decade, and their rivalry shows no signs of cooling down.

​Manchester City enters the tie as favorites, buoyed by home advantage and a strong run of form. However, Liverpool, led by Arne Slot, views the FA Cup as their most realistic path to silverware this season, especially with a significant gap to bridge in the Premier League.

​Merson’s Prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Liverpool

Merson expects a tightly contested affair but believes Pep Guardiola’s side will have just enough to edge past the Reds. "Manchester City are formidable at home, and while Liverpool will give them a real game, City’s depth and tactical discipline should see them through to the semi-finals," Merson noted.

​Chelsea vs. Port Vale: The Ultimate Underdog Story

​In contrast to the heavyweight clash in Manchester, Chelsea welcomes League One side Port Vale to Stamford Bridge. Port Vale has enjoyed a fairytale run to the last eight, but facing a Chelsea side hungry for a domestic trophy represents their toughest challenge yet.

​Chelsea has utilized the FA Cup to find rhythm during a season of transition. Under the lights at the Bridge, the Blues are expected to exert dominance from the first whistle.

​Merson’s Prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Port Vale

Merson is not anticipating an upset here. He predicts a comfortable evening for the London giants, citing the massive gulf in quality and resources. For Port Vale, the match is a celebration of their achievement, but Merson expects Chelsea’s professional approach to result in a clean sheet and a convincing victory.

​Southampton vs. Arsenal: A Tricky Trip to St Mary's

​Arsenal, Merson’s former club, faces a difficult away fixture against Southampton on Saturday night. The Gunners are currently juggling a Premier League title race and European commitments, but the FA Cup remains a competition deeply rooted in the club’s identity.

​Southampton has proven to be a "banana skin" for top-six sides at St Mary's this season. Their high-pressing style and vocal home support will be a significant test for Mikel Arteta’s squad rotation.

​Merson’s Prediction: Southampton 1-2 Arsenal

Despite the potential for a struggle, Merson backs the Gunners to find a way. "Arsenal have that winning habit now," he remarked. "It won't be easy, and Southampton will certainly score, but Arsenal’s quality in the final third should be the difference-maker."

​West Ham United vs. Leeds United: A Battle of Attrition

​The final tie of the round sees West Ham United host Leeds United at the London Stadium on Sunday. This match pits two historically significant clubs against each other in what promises to be a physical and emotionally charged encounter.

​Leeds United has shown remarkable resilience to reach this stage, while West Ham is looking to add an FA Cup run to their recent European successes. This fixture is widely seen as the hardest to call of the four.

​Merson’s Prediction: West Ham 1-1 Leeds United (West Ham to win on penalties)

Merson predicts a stalemate through 90 minutes and extra time. He believes the tactical setup of both teams will lead to a defensive battle, eventually requiring a penalty shootout to separate them. He gives the slight edge to the Hammers to hold their nerve in front of their home fans.

​Tactical Trends to Watch This Weekend

​As we look at these predictions, several tactical themes emerge that could influence the actual results:

1. ​Squad Rotation: With European football returning, how much will managers like Guardiola and Arteta rotate their squads?
2. ​The "Home" Advantage: Three of the four favorites (City, Chelsea, West Ham) are playing at home, which historically increases the likelihood of progression in the FA Cup.
3. ​VAR and Fine Margins: In high-stakes games like City vs. Liverpool, single decisions or VAR interventions often dictate the outcome.

​Conclusion: The Road to Wembley Continues

​The 2025/26 FA Cup quarter-finals promise to be a spectacle of English football at its best. Whether we see the favorites advance as Paul Merson predicts or witness a historic upset from a side like Port Vale, the drama is guaranteed.

​For fans, the stakes couldn't be higher. A win this weekend secures a trip to the hallowed turf of Wembley for the semi-finals, bringing their club one step closer to lifting one of the most prestigious trophies in world football.