Nigeria Cuts Petrol Imports from Malta by 60% as Dangote Petroleum Refinery Ramps Up Domestic Output

In a major shift for Nigeria’s fuel supply dynamics, imports of refined petrol from Malta dropped sharply by around 60% in 2024, amid growing domestic supply from Dangote Petroleum Refinery. 

The Numbers: From Surge to Plunge

According to data from TradeMap, the value of petroleum products Nigeria imported from Malta fell to about US $818 million in 2024, down from over US $2.1 billion in 2023. 

The surge seen in 2023 — when imports from Malta exploded to filling large parts of Nigeria’s fuel demand — had raised concerns over blending operations, route transparency, and strain on foreign-exchange reserves. 

The decline closely tracks the ramp-up of operations at Dangote’s 650,000 barrels-per-day refining complex, which began producing diesel and jet fuel in 2024 before rolling out petrol supply. 

Why Dangote Makes the Difference

The entry of a large-scale, home-grown refinery — with capacity to meet a significant portion of domestic petrol demand — appears to have fundamentally altered Nigeria’s downstream petroleum landscape. Several factors underpin this shift:

With domestic refining taking off, dependency on foreign shipments has fallen. Industry insiders now say the urgency to import refined petrol has reduced significantly. 

In the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria’s petrol import bill dropped by roughly 54% year-on-year — a direct effect of increasing local supply and declining reliance on imports. 

Seaborne imports of clean petroleum products fell by about 39% in the first seven months of 2025, compared with the same period of the previous year. 

Analysts say this trend may pave the way for Nigeria to not only satisfy domestic fuel needs internally — but potentially emerge as a net exporter of refined petroleum products, ending decades of dependency on imported fuel. 

Broader Implications for Nigeria’s Fuel Sector

1. Foreign-Exchange Savings & Economic Stability

By reducing imports, Nigeria can significantly cut foreign-exchange outflows tied to fuel importation. Over time, this could bolster economic stability, reduce pressure on foreign reserves, and curb fluctuations tied to global oil supply shocks.

2. Strengthened Energy Security

Domestic refining capability via Dangote reduces vulnerability to external supply disruptions and strengthens the resilience of Nigeria’s fuel supply chain — a major win for national energy security.

3. Market Reshaping: From Importers to Producers

Traditional import-dependent fuel marketers and traders are now facing a transformed market. As local refining dominates, import volumes drop — forcing a shift in business models, investment flows, and distribution networks. This change might disrupt old supply chains but also create opportunities in refining, logistics, and local distribution. 

4. Lower Prices & Consumer Benefit

With local supply easing pressure on demand, retail petrol prices have the potential to stabilise or even decline. Reduced import costs and supply bottlenecks could translate to more affordable fuel for consumers nationwide.

Risks & What to Watch

Despite the positive shift, some concerns remain:

The smooth functioning of the refinery is critical. Any maintenance downtime, crude-supply disruption, or capacity loss could quickly force Nigeria back to heavy import reliance. As noted by local analysts, when certain refinery units are offline (e.g. RFCC), petrol production can drop sharply, exposing the country to risks if no alternative sources are secured. 

The transition may be uneven — until local production stabilises, certain regions may still rely on imports or face supply gaps, meaning imports may not disappear completely for now.

As global demand and supply cycles shift, maintaining competitive quality and pricing will be vital for the refinery to sustain local dominance.

 What’s Next

Continued monitoring of import data to see if the downward trend from Malta and other foreign sources holds.

Observing retail petrol prices across Nigeria to gauge if savings from reduced imports are passed on to consumers.

Tracking refinery uptime, maintenance cycles, and output stability — given that consistent production is the backbone of the shift away from imports.

Potential emergence of Nigeria as a fuel exporter if refining output remains strong and surplus supply grows.

Conclusion

The 60% slump in petrol imports from Malta marks a turning point in Nigeria’s fuel economy — one driven by domestic capability rather than foreign dependence. As the Dangote Refinery scales up, Nigeria’s petrol supply is becoming more self-reliant, less exposed to global supply chain vulnerabilities, and better positioned for price stability.

If this trend continues, the era of heavy fuel importation may be ending — giving way to a structurally transformed downstream sector rooted in homegrown refining, economic resilience, and potential export opportunity.