Global Energy Crisis: Why the Iran-Israel-US War Could Send Crude Oil Prices to $100

 

The global energy market is standing on the edge of a precipice following the dramatic military escalation in the Middle East on Saturday, February 28, 2026. As Operation Epic Fury unfolds with joint United States and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, a new and immediate threat has emerged: the potential for a total shutdown of the world's most vital oil artery.

​In a move that has sent shockwaves through trading floors from London to Tokyo, several major oil companies and top trading houses have officially suspended crude oil and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. This preemptive halt, driven by extreme security risks and reports of Iranian naval interference, has experts predicting a historic spike in global energy costs.

​The Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint Under Siege

​The Strait of Hormuz is not just a waterway; it is the lifeblood of the global economy. Approximately 20-21% of the world's total oil consumption—roughly 21 million barrels per day—passes through this narrow passage. It connects the massive oil producers of the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait, to the global market.

​On Saturday afternoon, reports surfaced that vessels in the region received VHF transmissions from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) stating that "no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz." While not yet an official state decree, the threat was enough to cause "maritime gridlock."

​Why Shipments Are Stopping:

• ​Security Risks: Leading trading desks told Reuters that "ships will stay put for several days" until the full extent of the naval conflict is understood.
• ​Insurance Costs: Insurance premiums for "war risk" in the Arabian Gulf are expected to skyrocket, making it financially unviable for many tankers to operate.
• ​Targeting Fears: Analysts warn that any vessel with business connections to US or Israeli interests is now a "high-priority target" for Iranian retaliation.

​Predicting the Price Hike: $80, $100, or Higher?

​Before the first missile was even fired on Saturday, Brent crude was already trading at a six-month high of roughly $73 per barrel. With the formal commencement of hostilities, the "geopolitical risk premium" is being recalculated in real-time.

​Scenarios for Oil Prices:

• ​The "Localized" Scenario ($80-$85): If the conflict remains contained and the Strait of Hormuz remains partially open, economists at Capital Economics suggest Brent could settle around $80, mirroring the peak of the 12-day air war in June 2025.
• ​The "Infrastructure Attack" Scenario ($100+): If US or Israeli strikes successfully target Iranian oil terminals like Kharg Island (which handles 90% of Iran's exports), or if Iran retaliates against Arab Gulf oil facilities, prices are widely expected to top $100 per barrel.
• ​The "Total Blockade" Scenario ($130+): A prolonged closure of the Strait would create a physical deficit in oil supply that spare capacity elsewhere cannot easily fill, potentially pushing prices past the $130 record seen during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

​The Global Economic Fallout

​A sustained oil spike doesn't just affect the gas pump; it acts as a "tax" on global growth. At $100 per barrel, analysts estimate a potential 0.6 to 0.7 percentage point increase in global inflation. This comes at a time when many Western economies are still struggling to normalize interest rates.

​Furthermore, the OPEC+ alliance is reportedly meeting on Sunday to consider a "larger-than-expected" production hike. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold significant spare capacity, the question remains whether they can physically move that oil to market if the main maritime exit remains a war zone.

​Conclusion: A Tense Sunday for World Markets

​As the sun sets on February 28, 2026, the global energy system is in "emergency mode." The suspension of shipments by oil majors is a clear signal that the private sector views the current Iran-Israel-US conflict as a systemic threat. Investors will be watching the opening of the Asian markets on Sunday night with bated breath, as the first "war-time" prices are established.