Precision or Peril? Why Intelligence Failure is the Biggest Risk in Sambisa Forest Airstrikes

 Nigeria’s battle against insurgency and banditry has entered a high-octane phase as security forces intensify operations across volatile regions. However, the use of air power in the nation's vast forests has sparked a heated debate among experts. On Saturday, February 28, 2026, prominent security analyst Amb. Abdullahi Bakoji Adamu warned that while aerial bombardment is a "legitimate security tool," intelligence failure remains the single most significant risk in the war against forest-based criminals.

​Speaking in an exclusive interview with Daily Post, Bakoji reacted to recent concerns raised by Islamic cleric Sheikh Ahmad Abubakar Gumi, who cautioned against indiscriminate bombing. Bakoji’s assessment highlights a delicate balance: the military's need for overwhelming force versus the catastrophic consequences of misidentified targets in the dense terrains of Sambisa and other northern forests.

​The Strategic Importance of Air Power in Modern Warfare

​Nigeria’s forests—from the infamous Sambisa Forest in Borno to the rugged hideouts in Kaduna and Zamfara—have long served as safe havens for bandits and terrorists. These areas are often inaccessible to ground troops due to difficult terrain, landmines, and the risk of ambushes.

​Bakoji noted that when used correctly, aerial strikes are highly effective at:

• ​Degrading Logistics: Destroying fuel dumps, food stores, and ammunition caches.
• ​Neutralizing High-Value Targets: Eliminating key terrorist commanders without risking ground infantry.
• ​Disrupting Command Structures: Breaking the communication lines that allow bandit groups to coordinate attacks on nearby communities.

​"From a security standpoint, forest-based bandit groups operating in hardened camps can legitimately be targeted with calibrated air power," Bakoji stated, provided the operations are backed by "credible and actionable intelligence."




​The "Greatest Danger": Why Intelligence is Everything

​The core of Bakoji’s warning lies in the margin for error. In a forest environment, the line between a "hardened criminal camp" and a "civilian settlement" can be dangerously thin. Terrorist groups often adopt a strategy of human shielding, embedding their operations near rural communities to deter military strikes.

​The Consequences of Faulty Intelligence

​According to Bakoji, a strike based on poor intelligence leads to a domino effect of disasters:

1. ​Civilian Casualties: Innocent lives are lost, often including children and local farmers.
2. ​Reputational Damage: The state loses the "moral high ground," making it harder to gain international support or local cooperation.
3. ​Displacement and Radicalization: Survivors of accidental strikes may be driven toward resentment or recruitment by insurgent groups.
4. ​Property Destruction: Vital agricultural land and rural infrastructure are often collateral damage in these strikes.

​Recalling recent history, Nigeria has seen instances of "accidental airstrikes"—most notably in Kaduna—where civilians were killed after being misidentified as combatants. Bakoji insists that strict target verification protocols must be followed before any pilot is authorized to pull the trigger.

​"Bombing is a Tool, Not a Strategy"

​One of the most poignant takeaways from Bakoji’s analysis is the limitation of air power. He argued that bombing alone cannot secure a territory or permanently dismantle a criminal network. Instead, he proposed a multi-dimensional security approach:

• ​Precision Ground Missions: Once an area has been softened by air strikes, ground forces must move in to hold the territory and interact with local populations.
• ​Stabilization Measures: Rebuilding trust with forest communities through humanitarian aid and security presence.
• ​Technological Integration: Using advanced surveillance drones and local human intelligence (HUMINT) to verify targets in real-time.

​Conclusion: Calibrating the Fight Against Insecurity

​The debate surrounding Sambisa and forest-based banditry is far from over. While the Nigerian government continues to invest in sophisticated air platforms, the insights from Amb. Abdullahi Bakoji Adamu serve as a sobering reminder: hardware is only as good as the information feeding it. As the 2026 security operations continue, the focus must remain on precision, accountability, and the protection of innocent Nigerians who live on the fringes of these conflict zones.